Achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction is challenging due to the theoretical difficulty of satisfying pointwise constraints in finite samples. Building upon the characterization of conditional coverage through marginal moment restrictions, we introduce Minimax Optimization Predictive Inference (MOPI), a framework that generalizes prior work by optimizing over a flexible class of set-valued mappings during the calibration phase, rather than simply calibrating a fixed sublevel set. This minimax formulation effectively circumvents the structural constraints of predefined score functions, achieving superior shape adaptivity while maintaining a principled connection to the minimization of mean squared coverage error. Theoretically, we provide non-asymptotic oracle inequalities and show that the convergence rate of the coverage error attains the optimal order under regular conditions. The MOPI also enables valid inference conditional on sensitive attributes that are available during calibration but unobserved at test time. Empirical results on complex, non-standard conditional distributions demonstrate that MOPI produces more efficient prediction sets than existing baselines.

We study nonparametric covariance function estimation for functional data observed with noise at discrete locations on a $d$-dimensional domain. Estimating the covariance function from discretely observed data is a challenging nonparametric problem, particularly in multidimensional settings, since the covariance function is defined on a product domain and thus suffers from the curse of dimensionality. This motivates the use of adaptive estimators, such as deep learning estimators. However, existing theoretical results are largely limited to estimators with explicit analytic representations, and the properties of general learning-based estimators remain poorly understood. We establish an oracle inequality for a broad class of learning-based estimators that applies to both sparse and dense observation regimes in a unified manner, and derive convergence rates for deep learning estimators over several classes of covariance functions. The resulting rates suggest that structural adaptation can mitigate the curse of dimensionality, similarly to classical nonparametric regression. We further compare the convergence rates of learning-based estimators with several existing procedures. For a one-dimensional smoothness class, deep learning estimators are suboptimal, whereas local linear smoothing estimators achieve a faster rate. For a structured function class, however, deep learning estimators attain the minimax rate up to polylogarithmic factors, whereas local linear smoothing estimators are suboptimal. These results reveal a distinctive adaptivity-variance trade-off in covariance function estimation.

Understanding minimal assumptions that enable learning and generalization is perhaps the central question of learning theory. Several celebrated results in statistical learning theory, such as the VC theorem and Littlestone's characterization of online learnability, establish conditions on the hypothesis class that allow for learning under independent data and adversarial data, respectively. Building upon recent work bridging these extremes, we study sequential decision making under distributional adversaries that can adaptively choose data-generating distributions from a fixed family $U$ and ask when such problems are learnable with sample complexity that behaves like the favorable independent case. We provide a near complete characterization of families $U$ that admit learnability in terms of a notion known as generalized smoothness i.e. a distribution family admits VC-dimension-dependent regret bounds for every finite-VC hypothesis class if and only if it is generalized smooth. Further, we give universal algorithms that achieve low regret under any generalized smooth adversary without explicit knowledge of $U$. Finally, when $U$ is known, we provide refined bounds in terms of a combinatorial parameter, the fragmentation number, that captures how many disjoint regions can carry nontrivial mass under $U$. These results provide a nearly complete understanding of learnability under distributional adversaries. In addition, building upon the surprising connection between online learning and differential privacy, we show that the generalized smoothness also characterizes private learnability under distributional constraints.

We study adversarially robust transfer learning, wherein, given labeled data on multiple (source) tasks, the goal is to train a model with small robust error on a previously unseen (target) task. In particular, we consider a multi-task representation learning (MTRL) setting, i.e., we assume that the source and target tasks admit a simple (linear) predictor on top of a shared representation (e.g., the final hidden layer of a deep neural network). In this general setting, we provide rates on the excess adversarial (transfer) risk for Lipschitz losses and smooth nonnegative losses. These rates show that learning a representation using adversarial training on diverse tasks helps protect against inference-time attacks in data-scarce environments. Additionally, we provide novel rates for the single-task setting.

Due to statistical lower bounds on the learnability of many function classes under privacy constraints, there has been recent interest in leveraging public data to improve the performance of private learning algorithms.

In this work, we investigate an alternative setting for tuning regularization parameters, namely data-driven algorithm design, following the previous line of work by Balcan et al. [

As one of the most mainstream paradigms for sequential decision-making, RL has extensive applications in many real-world problems (Kober et al., 2013; Mnih et al.,